Poker Float Bet Chart
How often does a float bet need to work? This poker float-bet chart lists folds needed and villain MDF for common sizes — ⅓ through pot — into a $100 pot after you called a c-bet and they checked, plus when floating beats checking behind. Pair it with the probe-bet chart, the c-bet chart, the fold equity chart, the MDF chart, and the free bluff calculator.
Float-bet sizing chart: folds needed and MDF
Setup used for every row: heads-up pot already $100 after you called a continuation bet and the aggressor checked the next street. Action is on you — you bet (a float).
| Float size (of pot) | Folds a pure float needs | Villain MDF | Bet into a $100 pot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33% (⅓) | 25% | 75% | $33 |
| 50% (½) | 33.3% | 66.7% | $50 |
| 67% (⅔) | 40% | 60% | $67 |
| 75% (¾) | 42.9% | 57.1% | $75 |
| 100% (pot) | 50% | 50% | $100 |
Folds needed = bet ÷ (pot + bet). MDF = pot ÷ (pot + bet). They always add to 100%. Numbers assume a pure bluff (zero equity when called) heads-up.
The formula
Folds needed = bet ÷ (pot + bet)
MDF = pot ÷ (pot + bet) = 1 − folds needed
Identical arithmetic to a probe or c-bet of the same size. A half-pot float still needs one fold in three; a one-third pot stab still needs one in four. What changes is the story: you already paid to see this street, and their check often means the light c-bet gave up.
Worked example: $100 pot, half-pot float ($50)
You called their flop bet. They check the turn. Pot is $100. You bet $50.
- Folds needed (pure): 50 ÷ 150 = 33.3%.
- Villain MDF: 100 ÷ 150 = 66.7%.
- Check: 33.3% + 66.7% = 100%.
Against a nit who folds 40% after checking the turn, a pure half-pot float clears. Against a sticky checker who almost never folds, you need outs (see the semi-bluff chart) or you should check behind more. Try the calculator preloaded for a $50 turn float.
Worked example: $100 pot, one-third pot float (~$33)
Same $100 pot, now a small float of one-third pot (about $33).
- Folds needed: 33.3 ÷ 133.3 = 25%.
- Villain MDF: 75%.
Small floats after a give-up-looking check only need a quarter of their range to fold, and you put less at risk when called or check-raised. The tradeoff: medium hands and draws continue cheaply — so on wet boards a larger size that denies equity can be better when you do float.
Float vs probe vs c-bet
Break-even fold % matches a probe or c-bet of the same size. Timing differs. A c-bet is the aggressor continuing. A probe bets after they checked (often without you having called that street's bet first). A float specifically called their earlier bet, then bets when they check. Float when light c-betters check a lot of turns, when you want to deny equity, or when checking behind gives a free card you dislike. Otherwise take the free showdown.
The multiway trap
Everyone behind you must fold. Two opponents each folding 40% leave a pure bluff winning only 16% (0.4 × 0.4). A half-pot float needs 33.3% heads-up — multiway, skip most air floats.
When to float small vs large
Small (⅓–½). Their turn check looks weak after a light flop c-bet, heads-up, thin value, or buying cheap folds from missed draws and overcards.
Large (⅔–pot). Wet textures where draws get the right price to a small stab, or polarized value that wants a bigger pot. Pure bluffs at these sizes need 40–50% folds.
Skip the float. Multiway pots, barrel-happy players who rarely check, no plan versus a check-raise, or when checking behind is clearer. Stack depth after: see the SPR chart.
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See it on Amazon →Float-bet FAQ
What is a float bet in poker?
A float is calling a bet — usually a flop c-bet — with the plan to take the pot later when the aggressor checks. The float bet is that delayed stab on the turn (or river): you called earlier, they gave up the initiative, and you bet into them.
How often does a float bet need to work as a pure bluff?
Same formula as any bet: folds needed = bet ÷ (pot + bet). A one-third pot float needs 25% folds; half pot needs 33.3%; two-thirds needs 40%; three-quarters needs 42.9%; pot needs 50%. Equity when called lowers the fold target — see the semi-bluff chart.
How is a float different from a probe bet?
Both bet after someone checked. A probe often leads after the aggressor checked without you having called a prior bet that street. A classic float specifically called their earlier bet first, then bets when they check. Break-even fold % for the same size is identical; the hand history and range story differ.
What is MDF facing a float bet?
Minimum defense frequency = pot ÷ (pot + bet). Facing a half-pot float, MDF is 66.7%. Facing a one-third pot stab, MDF is 75%. Fold more often than that and pure float bluffs print — sticky checkers who never fold still punish light floats.
When should you float small vs large — or skip?
Small (⅓–½) when their check looks like a give-up after a light c-bet and you want cheap folds. Large (⅔–pot) on wet boards that deny equity, or with polarized value. Skip multiway, against barrel-happy players who rarely check, or when you have no plan versus a check-raise. Pair with the probe, c-bet, and check-raise charts.