Poker Donk Bet Chart
How often does a flop donk bet need to work? This poker donk-bet chart lists folds needed and the raiser's MDF for common lead sizes — ⅓ through pot — into a $100 pot, plus when leading beats checking to the aggressor. Pair it with the c-bet chart, the fold equity chart, the MDF chart, and the free bluff calculator.
Donk-bet sizing chart: folds needed and MDF
Setup used for every row: heads-up flop, pot already $100 after an open and a call. You are out of position and lead before the preflop raiser acts.
| Donk size (of pot) | Folds a pure donk needs | Raiser MDF | Bet into a $100 pot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33% (⅓) | 25% | 75% | $33 |
| 50% (½) | 33.3% | 66.7% | $50 |
| 67% (⅔) | 40% | 60% | $67 |
| 75% (¾) | 42.9% | 57.1% | $75 |
| 100% (pot) | 50% | 50% | $100 |
Folds needed = bet ÷ (pot + bet). MDF = pot ÷ (pot + bet). They always add to 100%. Numbers assume a pure bluff (zero equity when called) heads-up.
The formula
Folds needed = bet ÷ (pot + bet)
MDF = pot ÷ (pot + bet) = 1 − folds needed
Identical arithmetic to a continuation bet of the same size. A half-pot lead still needs one fold in three; a one-third pot stab still needs one in four. The strategic difference is who bets first and who is supposed to have the stronger range.
Worked example: $100 pot, half-pot donk ($50)
You called an open. Flop is out. Pot is $100. You lead $50 into the raiser.
- Folds needed (pure): 50 ÷ 150 = 33.3%.
- Raiser MDF: 100 ÷ 150 = 66.7%.
- Check: 33.3% + 66.7% = 100%.
Against a nit who folds 40% to leads, a pure half-pot donk clears. Against a raiser who almost never folds the flop, you need outs (see the semi-bluff chart) or you should check more. Try the calculator preloaded for a $50 flop lead.
Worked example: $100 pot, one-third pot donk (~$33)
Same $100 pot, now a small lead of one-third pot (about $33).
- Folds needed: 33.3 ÷ 133.3 = 25%.
- Raiser MDF: 75%.
Small donks on caller-favored boards only need a quarter of the raiser's range to fold, and you put less at risk when called or raised. The tradeoff: strong hands and draws continue cheaply — so on wet boards a larger size that denies equity can be better when you do lead.
Same math as a c-bet — different job
Break-even fold % matches a c-bet of the same size. What changes is frequency. Many preflop raisers continue by default, so light donk bluffs die more often than light c-bets. Lead when the board favors the calling range, when you want to deny equity, or when a check-raise plan looks worse. Otherwise check and let the raiser's c-bet define the pot — then consider a check-raise.
The multiway trap
Everyone behind you must fold. Two opponents each folding 40% leave a pure bluff winning only 16% (0.4 × 0.4). A half-pot donk needs 33.3% heads-up — multiway, skip most air leads.
When to donk small vs large
Small (⅓–½). Boards that smash callers (low connected, paired lows), heads-up, protecting medium made hands, or buying cheap folds from overcards.
Large (⅔–pot). Wet textures where draws get the right price to a small lead, or polarized value that wants a bigger pot. Pure bluffs at these sizes need 40–50% folds.
Skip the donk. Multiway pots, high dry boards that favor the raiser, no plan versus a raise, or when checking and reacting is clearer. Stack depth after: see the SPR chart.
Want the full system? Unleash the Madman on Kindle (free with KU). A short LAG playbook covering when to fire, when to stop, and the Tilt Trigger System.
See it on Amazon →Donk-bet FAQ
What is a donk bet in poker?
A donk bet is a lead into the preflop aggressor — usually the out-of-position caller betting the flop before the raiser can continue. The name is old slang; the play itself can be for value, as a semi-bluff, or as a pure bluff when the board favors your calling range.
How often does a donk bet need to work as a pure bluff?
Same formula as any bet: folds needed = bet ÷ (pot + bet). A one-third pot donk needs 25% folds; half pot needs 33.3%; two-thirds needs 40%; three-quarters needs 42.9%; pot needs 50%. Equity when called lowers the fold target — see the semi-bluff chart.
Is donk-bet math different from a c-bet?
The break-even fold percentage is identical for the same size into the same pot. What changes is who has range advantage and how often the raiser folds. Many raisers auto-continue, so a pure donk bluff often needs a clearer fold target than a standard c-bet.
What is MDF facing a donk bet?
Minimum defense frequency = pot ÷ (pot + bet). Facing a half-pot donk, MDF is 66.7%. Facing a one-third pot lead, MDF is 75%. Fold more often than that and pure donk bluffs print — which is why sticky raisers punish light leads.
When should you donk small vs large — or skip?
Small (⅓–½) on boards that smash the caller's range (low connected, multi-broadway) buys cheap fold equity and protects medium hands. Large (⅔–pot) denies equity to draws but needs more folds as air. Skip multiway, on raiser-favored high-card dry boards, or when you have no plan for a raise. Check-raising later can be better — see the check-raise chart.