Poker Semi-Bluff Chart
How often does a semi-bluff need to work? This chart shows, for common draws and bet sizes, the pure-bluff fold % and the lower fold % that makes betting beat checking for a free card — the same insight as the free bluff calculator.
Semi-bluff chart: folds needed by outs and bet size
| Outs | Draw | ½ pot pure | ½ pot vs free card | ¾ pot pure | ¾ pot vs free card | Pot pure | Pot vs free card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gutshot | 33.3% | 31.1% | 42.9% | 40.4% | 50% | 47.5% |
| 8 | OESD | 33.3% | 28.3% | 42.9% | 37.2% | 50% | 44.1% |
| 9 | Flush | 33.3% | 27.5% | 42.9% | 36.2% | 50% | 43.1% |
| 12 | Flush + gutshot | 33.3% | 24.4% | 42.9% | 32.7% | 50% | 39.3% |
| 15 | Combo (FD + OESD) | 33.3% | 20.5% | 42.9% | 27.9% | 50% | 34% |
Pot $100 behind the math. Equity = outs ÷ 46 (one card to come). Pure = bet ÷ (pot + bet). Bold = folds needed so betting beats checking.
The two fold targets
Pure folds needed = bet ÷ (pot + bet)
That is the break-even for a bluff with zero equity when called. Half pot needs 33.3%, three-quarters needs 42.9%, pot needs 50%. See the fold equity chart for the full size ladder and MDF.
A draw is not zero equity. If he always calls, your EV is C = e × (pot + bet) − (1 − e) × bet, with e = outs ÷ 46. Checking for a free card is worth chk = e × pot. Betting with fold rate f is worth f × pot + (1 − f) × C. Set that ≥ chk and solve:
Folds to beat a free card = (chk − C) ÷ (pot − C)
Assumptions: heads-up, one street, showdown after a call, no further betting. Every row here still needs some folds against a free card, but far fewer than the pure column once the draw is big.
Worked example: $100 pot, $50 bet, 9 outs
Turn. You have a flush draw (9 outs of 46, e = 19.6%). Pot $100, you bet half pot ($50).
- Pure bluff: 50 ÷ 150 = 33.3% folds.
- Always called: river pot $200. You win it 19.6% of the time and lose $50 the rest: C = 19.6% × $150 − 80.4% × $50 ≈ $-10.87.
- Free card: check and win the $100 pot 19.6% of the time ≈ $19.57.
- Beat the free card: (19.57 − (-10.87)) ÷ (100 − (-10.87)) = 27.5% folds.
The real question is whether he folds more than about 27.5%, not a full third. Against many regs that clears; against a station who folds 15%, take the free card. Try the calculator preloaded with this spot.
Reading the chart
Small draws still need nearly pure folds. A gutshot (4 outs) only shaves a few points: 31.1% vs 33.3% at half pot, 47.5% vs 50% at pot. You are mostly bluffing; the outs are a discount.
Flush draws sit in the middle. Nine outs cut half-pot from 33.3% to 27.5%, and three-quarters from 42.9% to 36.2% — the same ¾-pot flush example on the fold equity page.
Combo draws change the game. Fifteen outs need about 20.5% folds on a half-pot bet to beat a free card, and 34% on a pot bet. That is why big draws want to be the aggressor. Count outs on the outs chart; price calls on the pot odds chart.
Honest limits
Heads-up only. Multiway, everyone must fold. Two opponents each folding 40% leave you winning only 16% of the time.
One street. Flop semi-bluffs face later streets and raises. Treat the table as a baseline for one-card-to-come spots.
No further betting. Showdown after a call is assumed. If he can bet you off later, or you can barrel again, the fold target moves.
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See it on Amazon →Semi-bluff FAQ
What is a semi-bluff in poker?
A semi-bluff is a bet or raise with a hand that is behind right now but has outs to improve, usually a draw. You win when they fold, and you still have equity when they call — unlike a pure bluff with zero outs.
How many folds does a semi-bluff need?
Fewer than a pure bluff of the same size, if the alternative is checking for a free card. Divide so that fold% × pot + (1 − fold%) × (EV when called) beats equity × pot. A half-pot flush-draw bet needs about 27.5% folds to beat a free card, versus 33.3% as a pure bluff.
Why compare betting to checking instead of to zero?
Checking a draw is not worth nothing. With a free river you still realize outs ÷ 46 of the pot. The right break-even asks whether betting beats that free-card EV, not whether it beats zero. That is the calculator's key insight.
Does a bigger draw need fewer folds?
Yes. More outs raise your EV when called and raise the value of checking, but the call EV rises faster relative to the fold target against checking. A 15-out combo draw needs only about 20.5% folds on a half-pot bet to beat a free card; a gutshot still needs about 31.1%.
What does this chart assume?
Heads-up, one street left, no further betting after a call, and equity = outs ÷ 46. Multiway pots, raises, and later streets change the math. Use the free bluff calculator for a specific read.