♠ Madman Poker Lab

Poker Outs Chart

How many outs do you have, and how often will you hit? This poker outs chart covers the common draws, from a gutshot to a monster combo draw, with exact odds of hitting on the turn, on the river, and by the river from the flop. Pair it with the pot odds chart to know whether a call is worth it.

Poker outs chart: odds of hitting your draw

DrawExampleOutsTurnRiver (1 card to come)By the river (from the flop)
Pocket pair to a set5♣5♦ on K♥ 9♠ 2♣24.3%4.3%8.4%
Two pair to a full houseK♣9♦ on K♥ 9♠ 4♣48.5%8.7%16.5%
Gutshot straight draw9♣8♦ on J♥ 7♠ 2♦ (needs a ten)48.5%8.7%16.5%
Two overcardsA♣K♦ on 9♥ 7♠ 2♣612.8%13%24.1%
Open-ended straight draw (OESD)9♣8♦ on T♠ 7♥ 2♠817%17.4%31.5%
Double gutshotJ♣9♦ on K♠ T♠ 7♥817%17.4%31.5%
Flush draw6♥5♥ on K♥ 9♥ 2♣919.1%19.6%35%
Flush draw + gutshotJ♥T♥ on Q♥ 8♥ 3♣1225.5%26.1%45%
Flush draw + two overcardsA♥K♥ on 9♥ 6♥ 2♣1531.9%32.6%54.1%
Flush draw + OESDJ♥T♥ on 9♥ 8♥ 2♣1531.9%32.6%54.1%

Turn = outs ÷ 47. River = outs ÷ 46 (one card to come). By the river = 1 − (non-outs ÷ 47) × ((non-outs − 1) ÷ 46), seeing both cards from the flop. Overcard outs assume top pair is good; runner-runner draws ignored.

How to count your outs

An out is a card that turns your hand into the likely winner. Start with the cards that complete your draw. A flush draw has nine (13 of the suit, minus your two, minus the two on the board). An open-ended straight draw like 9-8 on T-7-2 has eight, four sixes and four jacks. A gutshot like 9-8 on J-7-2 has only four, the tens.

Combo draws add up, but never count a card twice. J♥T♥ on 9♥ 8♥ 2♣ has nine hearts plus the queens and sevens, but the Q♥ and 7♥ are already among the hearts. That leaves 9 + 3 + 3 = 15, not 17. The same logic gives a flush draw plus gutshot 12 outs: nine hearts and the three non-heart nines.

Overcards are the softest outs: A♣K♦ on 9-7-2 has six, but they do nothing against two pair or a set.

Discount dirty outs

The chart counts every out as clean. At the table, be stricter:

When in doubt, count fewer outs.

From outs to odds

The shortcut is the rule of 2 and 4: outs × 2 for one card, × 4 for two. Nine outs is about 18% and 36% (exact 19.6% and 35%). The rule of 4 overstates big draws: 15 outs is 60% by the rule but 54.1% exactly. The pot odds chart has the full comparison.

Then compare the number to the price. Facing a pot-sized turn bet you need 33.3%, which takes 16 outs with one card to come, so even a combo draw can't call on direct odds alone. Facing a third-pot bet you need 20%, and a flush draw at 19.6% is almost there.

Turn your draw into a bet

Big draws play best as the aggressor. With 12 or 15 outs you're close to even money from the flop, so a raise wins when he folds and keeps lots of equity when he calls. Plug your outs, pot and bet into the free bluff calculator to see whether a semi-bluff beats checking.

Unleash the Madman by Jack Maniac, book cover

Want the full system? Unleash the Madman on Kindle (free with KU). A short LAG playbook covering when to fire, when to stop, and the Tilt Trigger System.

See it on Amazon →

Poker outs FAQ

How many outs does a flush draw have?

Nine. There are 13 cards in a suit; you hold two and the board shows two, which leaves nine. With two cards to come from the flop, you complete the flush by the river 35% of the time.

How many outs does an open-ended straight draw have?

Eight: four cards at each end. An OESD hits on the turn 17% of the time, on the river 17.4% of the time with one card to come, and 31.5% of the time by the river from the flop.

How many outs is a gutshot?

Four, the four cards of the one rank that fills the straight. That's 8.5% on the turn and 16.5% by the river, so a gutshot alone rarely has the price to call a big bet.

What are the odds of hitting a flush draw by the river?

35% from the flop with both cards to come (9 outs), and 19.6% from the turn with one card to come. On the flop it's about 1.9 to 1 against; on the turn about 4.1 to 1 against.

What is a combo draw?

A hand with two draws at once, most often a flush draw plus a straight draw. A flush draw with an open-ended straight draw has 15 outs and is 54.1% to hit by the river, a favorite over a single pair.