♠ Madman Poker Lab · Jack Maniac
Bluff & Tilt Cheat Sheet
No-Limit Hold'em. Simplified math for one card to come, one caller, and no more betting after a call. Use it to train judgment, not replace it.
1 · How often must a bluff work?
| Your bet | Folds needed | Caller needs (equity) |
|---|---|---|
| ⅓ pot | 25% | 20% |
| ½ pot | 33% | 25% |
| ⅔ pot | 40% | 29% |
| ¾ pot | 43% | 30% |
| Pot | 50% | 33% |
| 1.25× pot | 56% | 36% |
| 1.5× pot | 60% | 38% |
| 2× pot | 67% | 40% |
Folds needed = bet ÷ (bet + pot). Caller needs = call ÷ (pot + bet + call).
Multiway: everyone must fold. Two players folding 40% each = only 16% that both fold.
2 · Outs → equity
| Draw | Outs | Next card | Flop → river* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gutshot | 4 | 9% | 17% |
| Open-ender | 8 | 17% | 31% |
| Flush draw | 9 | 20% | 35% |
| FD + gutshot | 12 | 26% | 45% |
| FD + open-ender | 15 | 33% | 54% |
Quick rule: outs × 2 for one card, outs × 4 for two. *Two cards only if you're all-in or get a free turn. Dirty outs (that also help him) don't count.
3 · Starting fold guesses by player type
| Calling station | ~15% | Bluff almost never. Value bet thin. |
| Loose-passive | ~25% | Small bluffs only, with equity. |
| Unknown | ~35% | Semi-bluff; keep pure air small. |
| Thinking reg | ~50% | Balanced; pick credible stories. |
| Nit | ~60% | Fire, but believe his raises. |
Starting points, not facts. Adjust to what this player has actually shown at this stake.
4 · The semi-bluff filter (need 2 of 3)
- Blockers: my cards remove some of his strongest continuing hands.
- Real equity: if called, I make the best hand a decent share of the time, not a dirty draw.
- Folds: this player, at this stake, folds his medium hands to this size.
Two fails = downshift: check, or choose a smaller size.
5 · The overbet filter (need 3 of 3)
- My range is polarized: monsters and draws/air, with medium hands mostly checking.
- His range is capped: earlier actions removed most of his strongest hands.
- I can name hands in his range that fold to this size.
6 · Stop firing when…
- He plays a ton of hands and rarely raises (VPIP way above the table).
- He has already shown down weak hands after calling multiple streets.
- The pot is multiway.
- He's stuck and annoyed, and more likely to call "to see it".
- Your hand has no equity and blocks nothing he'd fold.
Two or more true = check and give up with air.
7 · The 5 tilt types (and fair exploits)
| Steamer | Instant reloads, faster actions, raises with junk. | Value bet and 3-bet for value wider; cut your bluffs. |
| Chaser | "You always have it"… then calls anyway. | Stop bluffing him. Value bet thinner and bigger. |
| Turtle | Suddenly tight and passive; folds to every bet. | Steal, c-bet and barrel more; believe his big bets. |
| Grudge | Wide and aggressive against one player only. | If you're the target: widen value, drop marginal bluffs. |
| Iceman | Same ranges, timing and sizes up or down. | No tilt leak. Watch for "house money" and late fatigue. |
Exploit tilt with better bets, calls and folds only. No needling, berating or slow-rolls.
Your own leash: set a 2–3 buy-in stop-loss before you sit · fold the next orbit after any big pot · acting faster than usual is your first tilt tell.
From Unleash the Madman: Winning Big with Controlled Chaos in No-Limit Hold'em by Jack Maniac, a short LAG playbook. On Kindle and Kindle Unlimited: amazon.com/dp/B0F2N8LHJW
Run any spot through the free calculator and take the tilt quiz: madmanpoker.netlify.app
For players 18+/21+ where poker is legal. Play within your bankroll. Problem gambling help (US): 1-800-GAMBLER. Free to print and share unchanged. © Jack Maniac. Not affiliated with Amazon.