Poker Check-Raise Chart

How often does a check-raise need to work as a pure bluff? This poker check-raise chart lists folds needed and the bettor's MDF for common raise-to sizes — 2× through 4× a half-pot bet — in a $100-pot spot. Pair it with the fold equity chart, the c-bet chart, the overbet chart, and the free bluff calculator.

Check-raise sizing chart: folds needed and MDF

Setup used for every row: $100 pot, villain bets $50 (½ pot). Pot facing you = $150. You have not put chips in yet (you checked).

Folds needed = raise-to ÷ (pot facing you + raise-to). MDF = pot facing you ÷ (pot facing you + raise-to). They always add to 100%. Numbers assume a pure bluff (zero equity when called) heads-up.

The formula

Folds needed = raise-to ÷ (pot facing you + raise-to)

MDF = pot facing you ÷ (pot facing you + raise-to) = 1 − folds needed

Same math as every other bet on this site. The shock is the size class. A half-pot c-bet needs about one fold in three. A 3× check-raise into that same half-pot bet puts $150 at risk to win $150, so you need half the range to fold as a pure bluff — right in the overbet band.

Worked example: raise to $150 (3×) facing a $50 bet

Pot is $100. Villain bets $50. You check-raise to $150.

• Folds needed (pure): 150 ÷ 300 = 50%. One fold in two and the bluff breaks even.
• Bettor MDF: 150 ÷ 300 = 50%. He must continue half the time or pure check-raise bluffs print.
• Check: 50% + 50% = 100%.

Against a nit who folds 60% to raises, a light 3× check-raise clears. Against a sticky caller who continues 70%, you need outs (flush/OESD) so you are semi-bluffing — see the semi-bluff chart — or you should check-raise less often. Try the calculator preloaded as a $150 raise into $150 (same risk/reward as this row).

Worked example: raise to $100 (2×) — the cheaper size

Same $150 pot facing you, now a smaller raise to $100 (2× their $50).

• Folds needed: 100 ÷ 250 = 40%.
• Bettor MDF: 60%.

Dropping from 3× to 2× cuts the pure fold target from 50% to 40% and risks $50 less when called. That is why many draw-heavy check-raises favor the smaller end — you still apply pressure, but the break-even bar is lower. Nutted value often sizes larger (3–4×) to charge draws and extract; that raises the bluff fold target again.

When to check-raise small vs large

Smaller (≈2–2.5×). Draws and polar bluffs that want a lower break-even, or when the bettor folds often enough to small raises. You lose less when called and still deny a cheap next card.

Larger (≈3–4×). Strong made hands that want a big pot, or versus bettors who call small raises too wide. Bigger sizes force more folds from medium hands — but as pure bluffs they need 50–57% folds in this setup, so keep the light share honest.

Skip the bluff check-raise. Multiway pots (everyone must fold), bettors who almost never fold to a raise, or no plan for later streets. A check-call or a lead can be better. Stack depth after the raise: see the SPR chart.

Check-raise FAQ

What is a check-raise in poker?

A check-raise is checking when first to act, then raising after an opponent bets. You can do it for value with a strong hand, as a semi-bluff with a draw, or as a pure bluff. The raise size decides how often the bettor must fold for a pure check-raise bluff to break even.

How often does a pure check-raise bluff need to work?

Folds needed = raise-to amount ÷ (pot facing you + raise-to amount). Facing a $50 bet into a $100 pot ($150 facing you), raising to $150 (3×) needs 50% folds as a pure bluff; a smaller raise to $100 (2×) needs 40%; a raise to $200 (4×) needs 57.1%.

Why do check-raises need more folds than c-bets?

You are putting in a large raise relative to the pot already there. A half-pot c-bet only needs ~33% folds. A 3× check-raise into the same half-pot bet needs 50% folds as a pure bluff — closer to an overbet. Bring equity (outs) or a clear fold target.

What is MDF facing a check-raise?

Minimum defense frequency = pot facing the raiser ÷ (that pot + raise-to). Facing a raise to $150 into $150, MDF is 50%. Facing a raise to $100, MDF is 60%. Fold more often than that and pure check-raise bluffs print.

When should you check-raise small vs large?

Smaller raises (≈2–2.5× the bet) keep the fold target lower and lose less when called — useful with draws or polar bluffs that still want a price. Larger raises (≈3–4×) apply more pressure and build a bigger pot with nutted hands, but need 50%+ folds as pure bluffs. Multiway, everyone must fold — skip most bluff check-raises.